000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2200 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 6N100W 7N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NW TEXAS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 22N130W TO 19N140W. W TO SW 
UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N122W IS 
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N-20N 
BETWEEN NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND 140W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS 
EXTENDING N ALONG 90W THROUGH BELIZE...WITH UPPER ELY FLOW S OF 
THIS AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 110W. 

MODERATE TO STRONG NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE AREA W OF 100W. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY FRI 
BUT ANOTHER TRAIN OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THIS MIXES WITH MODERATE...SHORTER PERIOD TRADE 
WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY SFC HIGH IN THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 29N135W. 

A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG 121W/122W FROM 3N 
TO 12N...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO NEAR 126W THROUGH THU. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ 
SECTION ABOVE. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 110W. TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ARE FOUND UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE WINDS AND 
SEAS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 48 HRS. OTHER WIND AREA JUST 
OVER 20 KT IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ. THIS 
AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN SIZE AND STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
GR