000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131621
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1605 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N100W 7N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 210 S NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 117W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEW MEXICO 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 22N130W TO 19N140W. W TO SW 
UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N125W IS 
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N-20N 
BETWEEN CENTRAL MEXICO AND 140W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING 
N ALONG 90W THROUGH BELIZE...WITH UPPER ELY FLOW S OF THIS AREA 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 110W. 

MODERATE TO STRONG NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE AREA W OF 100W. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY FRI 
BUT ANOTHER TRAIN OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THIS MIXES WITH MODERATE...SHORTER PERIOD TRADE 
WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY SFC HIGH IN THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 29N135W...LARGEST FROM 6N-25N W OF 120W. 
THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED 
A NARROW SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY...WHICH AGREED 
WELL WITH THE 30M GFS INITIALIZATION. HAVE THUS FOLLOWED THIS 
SOLUTION VERY CLOSELY...WHICH ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE IN 
THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 48 HRS. OTHER WIND 
AREA JUST OVER 20 KT IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS AREA 
WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN SIZE AND STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N122W TO 
12N120W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO NEAR 126W THROUGH THU. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ 
SECTION ABOVE. 


$$
WILLIS/COBB