000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...8N83W 7N89W 6N117W 4N134W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N 
TO 8N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N130W. WEAK LEE SIDE 
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WEAK 
TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 96W...115W AND NEAR 140W. 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE 
SURROUNDING SURFACE TROUGHS IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS IN THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 5N AND W OF 115W ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
PERSIST AS WELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DIMINISH AS 
HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. 

ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 23N137W. SUBSIDENT AIR IS EVIDENT ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BENEATH THE TROUGH. COPIOUS MOISTURE PLUME 
EVIDENT N OF ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH. THE 
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE AND DAMPEN OUT AS RIDGE BUILDS S...AHEAD OF 
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS N 
OF 20N THIS WEEKEND. 

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE 
NW...RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N130W WEAKENING AND 
SHIFTING E THROUGH LATE WEEK. FRESH NW WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN DIMINISH 
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. LIKEWISE 
TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE HIGH WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS WELL. 
HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN WATERS N OF 
20N. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN