000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120419 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE DEC 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N78W 8N90W 5N100W 6N110W 3N120W 4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF 137W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-117.5W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL MID-WEST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MEXICO AND TO NEAR 24N106W. IN ITS WAKE...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING INTO A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N124W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N140W...AND CONTINUES TO WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 15N140W AND CONTINUES ALONG 17N125W...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 20N120W TO ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INLAND MEXICO AT 24N107.5W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N113W SOUTHWEST THROUGH 6N120W TO 2N156W. ANOTHER WEAK/MID LEVEL TROUGH SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM 24N123W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 15N122W. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED NEAR 7N136W AND NEAR 9N108W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 7N ON EITHER WEST OF THE WEAK TROUGH TO YET ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 7N143W. STRONG STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N140W TO 20N125W TO 22N120W AND NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. A WEAK MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 16N96W 10N98W. WEAK INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT IS ALONG 95W FROM 3N-9N. ITS SURFACE REFLECTION IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT ALONG 93.5W FROM 4N-12N. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS NEAR 7N93W. WEAK MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER COVERING THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA EAST OF 110W WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE OUTSIDE ITCZ RELATED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. WEAK MID TO UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 89W. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH A CENTER OF 1032 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N1301...WITH HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 112W. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT FROM ABOUT 6N-20N WEST OF 125W. THE MAIN PROBLEM FACING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ARE SEEN FROM 10N-22N WEST OF 120W. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS SEAS IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT PEAK OUT AT ABOUT 14 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N-NE WINDS AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. GAP WINDS... N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WEST TO 88W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MATERIALIZED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THURSDAY. $$ AGUIRRE