000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112222 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON DEC 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 7N92W 6N110W 4.5N122W 5N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF 137W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W-86W. ...DISCUSSION... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IN ITS WAKE...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE REGION AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 32N129W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N140W...AND CONTINUES TO WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TO ACROSS AND BEYOND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 15N140W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N130W...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH 20N120W TO INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AT 24N107.5W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N128W SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10N123W TO 5N122W. ANOTHER WEAK/MID LEVEL TROUGH SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM 27N123W TO 19N122W. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED NEAR 7N136W AND NEAR 9N107W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 7N ON EITHER WEST OF THE WEAK TROUGH TO YET ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 7N143W. STRONG STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N140W 20N128W 23N120W NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. A WEAK MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 11N92W 5N93W WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION SEEN AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT ALONG 93W FROM 4N-12N. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH FROM 6N-7N. WEAK MID/LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER COVERING THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA EAST OF 110W WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE OUTSIDE ITCZ RELATED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. WEAK MID TO UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 88W. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH A CENTER OF 1032 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 28.5N129W...WITH HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT FROM ABOUT 6N-20N WEST OF 125W. THE MAIN PROBLEM FACING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ARE SEEN FROM 10N-22N WEST OF 120W. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS SEAS IN THE 13-16 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT PEAK OUT AT ABOUT 14 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N-NE WINDS AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. GAP WINDS... GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS THERE ARE NOW N-NE 20-25 KT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WEST TO 88W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MATERIALIZED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THURSDAY. $$ AGUIRRE