000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 7N92W 6N109W 4N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N130W...ENHANCING 
TRADE WIND FLOW ON ITS PERIPHERY GENERALLY N OF 5N AND W OF 
118W. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER 
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO IS RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG GAP WINDS STILL EVIDENT IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF WEAKENS. 

ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS 
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS N 
OF 23N NEAR 127W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OF THIS TROUGH 
ALONG 22N. 

THE 1034 MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT W AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH DEEPENS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND TO 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO 
THE WATERS N OF 22N BY LATE FRI...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY WINDS.


$$
CHRISTENSEN