000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W 8N90W 5N100W 5N110W 3N120W 
4N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART EXTENDS 
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHWESTWARD 
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST TO 24N117.5W. THIS TROUGH WILL BE OF THE ENTIRE REGION 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION 
THROUGH 32N118W AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 70 TO NEAR 100 KT FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AS 
INDICATED IN DERIVED SATELLITE WINDS. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE 
AREA WITH A MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 9N122W NORTHEAST TO 
17N117W. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N129W SOUTH
THROUGH 16N131W TO 8N131W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXETNDS ALONG 
8N WEST OF THE WEAK TROUGH TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WELL WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 9N152W. STRONG STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFINED FROM 18N-27N WEST OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED TROUGH. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
EAST-WEST BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND 110W...AND EAST OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG 9N INTO SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
WHERE ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN 
NEAR 11N78W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA EAST OF 110W WITH VERY 
LIMITED MOISTURE OUTSIDE ITCZ RELATED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. 
WEAK MID TO UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN 7N-11N FROM 103W-111W 
IS SUPPORTING ITCZ CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IT.

AT THE SURFACE...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH A CENTER OF 
1028 MB ANALYZED NEAR 28N136W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT. 
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE FACING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION
AREA IS THE VERY LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS SEAS IN THE 14-19 FT RANGE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS UP TO 24 FT OVER WATERS
N OF THE REGION. SEAS WILL ONLY SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PART TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND STAY ABOUT
THE SAME ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION.

GAP WINDS...
MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW GALE STRENGTH IN 6 HOURS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND AS 
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

NE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WEST TO 89W ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT AFTERWARDS.

$$
AGUIRRE