000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N78W 7N90W 5N100W 3N121W 4N130W
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 103.5W-107W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART EXTENDS 
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHWEST TO 15N116W. THIS TROUGH WILL 
BE OF THE ENTIRE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. A JET STREAM
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 32N122W THROUGH 28N117W TO
28.5N112W TO WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN 
MEXICO AND OVER NEW MEXICO. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH A 
MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 9N124W NORTHEAST TO 20N121W. A WEAK 
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N133W SOUTH THROUGH 15N133W TO 
9N132W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXETNDS ALONG 8N WEST OF THE 
WEAK TROUGH TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL 
WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 9N15W. STRONG STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY TO COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N. A WEAK MID/UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N98W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-WEST BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND 
110W...AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG 9N INTO 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN NEAR 11.5N78.5W. SATELLITE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERING THE AREA EAST OF 110W WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE 
OUTSIDE ITCZ RELATED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. WEAK MID TO UPPER 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN 7N-11N FROM 105W-111W IS SUPPORTING ITCZ 
CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IT.

AT THE SURFACE...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH A CENTER OF 
1030 MB ANALYZED NEAR 28N138W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT. 
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE FACING THE REGION IS THE VERY LARGE 
NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS SEAS IN THE 15 TO 19 FT RANGE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS IN THE 20-26 FT N OF THE 
REGION.

GAP WINDS...
MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW GALE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND AS 
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

NE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WEST TO 89W ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT.

$$
AGUIRRE