000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 5N95W 5N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 110W AND 133W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N123W 25N130W THEN BECOMING RATHER 
BROAD TO 22N140W. THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY 
EWD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS ALMOST STATIONARY. WEAK UPPER 
RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE 
TROUGH. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 250 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS 
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NW 
MEXICO TO 19N110W. A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY 
AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF THE ITCZ E OF 113W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS 
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA INTO THE PACIFIC TO 7N100W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...GENERALLY S OF 
NICARAGUA.

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N119W 26N125W TO 23N133W. SHIP 
REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG NLY WINDS W OF THE 
FRONT...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY. A STRONG 
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX TONIGHT AND 
WIND WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE.

$$
DGS