000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082144 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI DEC 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N84W 5N92W 5N100W 5N110W 6N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... OVERALL PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FIRST MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 40N127W SSEWD THROUGH 30N124W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N134W AND TO A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NEAR 17N138W AND 15N143W. THE LATTER WAS RETROGRADING WSW AT 5-10 KT. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A 4-5 DEG DIAMETER MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 27N107W THROUGH 20N107W TO 14N106W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH GENERALLY OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO. AN ADDITIONAL AREA WAS NOTED N OF 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST COVER THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF BOTH TROUGHS SOUTH TO 8N. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN BOTH TROUGHS WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N119W NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 25N117W AND TO A CREST WELL NORTH OF THE REGION OVER UTAH. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN EXISTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT IS ALONG 128W FROM 5N-11N AND IS ALSO AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W 28N125W TO 23N133W. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE WITHIN 480 NM WEST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PROBLEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ARE THE VERY LARGE NW-N SWELLS THAT WILL BE SPREADING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. WAVEWATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF UP TO 24 FT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A NEW COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE REGION FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF LARGE SWELLS INTO THE AREA THOUGH NOT AS LARGE AS SEEN WITH THE FIRST FRONT. E OF 100W... MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N93W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING DOMINATED THE PACIFIC E OF 100W AND WAS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WAS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 100W. GAP WINDS... MINIMAL GALE EVENT WITH N TO NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER THE EVENT CEASES. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WEST TO 89W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. $$ COBB