000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 5N110W 9N125W 8N140W.
NO ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
EXTENDS ALONG LINE 32N106W TO CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N110W AND 
CONTINUES TO 21N112W.  THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST AND IS CAUSING 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL UPWARD MOTION OVER MOST OF MEXICO NORTH 
OF 20N WITH MULTI LAYER CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THE AREA NEAR THE 
ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA BORDER AND BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE WEST OF 
THIS UPWARD MOTION AND ARE CLOUD FREE.  A LARGE AREA OF DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE AIR IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 122W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS IMPLIED IN THIS AREA.  

ANOTHER MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART 
OF THE AREA AND IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N131W TO 22N140W.  
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY NORTH OF 32N.  
WITH DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR OBSERVED SOUTH OF 32N WITHIN THE 
TROUGH.  A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OVER 
THE NORTHWEST PART ALONG LINE 32N136W TO 27N140W. ASSOCIATED 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE 
FRONT.

ANOTHER MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS ALONG LINE 20N134W TO 10N140W.  THE EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 17N140W AND IS DRIFTING 
WEST.  AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 17.7N137.1W.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY A 
BROAD RIDGE. DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS NOTED SE OF A LINE 17N100W TO 2N120W.

SURFACE...
COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N136W TO 27N140W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 130W.  WEAK RIDGE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 13N 
WEST OF 115W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS...
NE WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NE WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL