000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 6N110W 10N130W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
POINT 6.9N120.9W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART 
OF THE AREA FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN PART 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N124W TO 21N139W THEN ABRUPTLY SOUTH TO 
TO THE ITCZ NEAR 140W.  DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR IS OBSERVED 
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 128W AND WITHIN 300 NM NW 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF 128W.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
IS NOTED NORTH OF 26N FROM 120W TO 125W.  OVERCAST TO BROKEN 
MIDDLE AND LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 132W. 
WITHIN 360 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 122W A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS ADVECTING OVER MOST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  ALSO EXTENSIVE 
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED EAST OF THE THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 19N OUT 
TO 125W.  THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 14N TO 18N FROM 
105W TO 110W.  OTHERWISE THE AREA EAST OF 110W IS OBSERVED TO BE 
VERY DRY AND CLOUD FREE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ W OF 108W.  OTHERWISE BROAD 
TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA.

GAP WINDS...
GALE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ESTIMATED IN THE AREA. SEAS OF UP 
TO 14 FT WILL BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SEA SPRAY MAY CONTINUE 
TILL WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THIS AREA. ANOTHER EVENT IS 
EXPECTED ON FRI AND IS NOT FORECAST TO BE JUST BELOW GALE 
FORCE.

NE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
LL