000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...4N78W 4N92W 4N105W 7N120W 9N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 118W...AND ALSO W OF 132W.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N127.5W TO 13N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICAN BORDER THE 
THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N127W TO 21N138W THEN 
TO THE ITCZ NEAR 141W.  DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR IS OBSERVED 
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 130W AND WITHIN 300 NM NW 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF 130W.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
IS NOTED NORTH OF 27N FROM 121W TO 128W.  OVERCAST TO BROKEN 
MIDDLE AND LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 132W.
WITHIN 360 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 125W A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS ADVECTING OVER MOST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  ALSO EXTENSIVE 
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED EAST OF THE THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 17N 
OUT TO 125W.  THE OTHER CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA.  THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED NORTH 
OF 16N WEST OF 105W TO 115W.  OTHERWISE THE AREA EAST OF 110W IS 
OBSERVED TO BE VERY DRY AND CLOUD FREE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE.

GAP WINDS...
GALE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ESTIMATED IN THE AREA. SEAS OF UP 
TO 14 FT WILL BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SEA SPRAY MAY CONTINUE 
TILL WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THIS AREA. ANOTHER GALE EVENT 
IS EXPECTED ON FRI AND IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THIS 
PAST EVENT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
LL