000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061618 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED DEC 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N96W 5N108W 8N120W 9N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 116.5W-123W...BETWEEN 133W-139W ...AND ALSO FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 126W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N125W SW TO 22N135W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO SW OF THE AREA NEAR 6.5N141W. THE TROUGH WAS MOVING EWD AT 20 KT WHILE THE SHEAR AXIS WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. CONFLUENT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE E OF TROUGH..THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC E TO ABOUT 107W AND SWD TO 5N WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 12N115W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 75-100 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA CROSSING NORTH- EASTWARD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS AREA OF WINDS WAS ALSO ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 120W. STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND OVER INLAND NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ N OF 25N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 21N. A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW CORNER IN ABOUT 24 HRS PRECEDED BY INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELLS. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY REACH 24 FEET OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION ARE PRESENT SOUTHWEST TO A LINE FROM 15N120W TO 9N140W. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ ZONE NORTHEASTWARD WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA AND TOWARDS MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED NEAR 9N122W WITH RIDGE EAST TO ALONG 110W. DIFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 107W AND 124W AS WELL AS FROM 6N-13N W OF 124W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED NELY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 5N EAST OF 105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 107W LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ...OVER THESE WATERS. GAP WINDS... GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE ESTIMATED IN THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW GALE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WEAKENS...HOWEVER...LARGE SEA STATE UP TO 16 FT WILL BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SEA SPRAY MAY CONTINUE TILL WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THIS AREA. ANOTHER GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED ON FRI INTO THOUGH AT THE PRESENT TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS EVENT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE