000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N115W 8N130W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 107W AND 115W AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N127W SWWD 17N140W.
THE NRN END OF THE TROUGH WAS MOVING EWD AT 20 KT WHILE THE SRN 
END WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 
75-100 KT OVER FROM 17N140W NE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE ADVECTING TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 
THE ITCZ NE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG 
HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE REGION AND OVER INLAND NORTHERN 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ 
N OF 25N.

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 9N121W 
WITH RIDGE E TO ALONG 110W. DIFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
107W AND 115W AND W OF 125W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED NELY FLOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD TO 
ALONG 5N EAST OF 105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
AREA S OF 17N E OF 105W.

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
WINDS OF 35-40 KT ESTIMATED IN THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 12 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER MEXICO GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

$$
DGS