000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N90W 7N115W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...BETWEEN 124W AND 130W...AND W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND APPEARS TO BE FRACTURING WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N130W SWWD THROUGH 19N140W TO 
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N141W. THE NRN END OF THE 
TROUGH WAS SWINGING EWD AT 20 KT WHILE THE SRN END WAS IN THE 
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. OVERALL THE TROUGH WAS AIDING IN THE 
AMPLIFICATION OF A BROAD RIDGE WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 125W. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 75-100 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 18N 
CROSSING NORTHEASTWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO 
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS AREA OF WINDS WAS ALSO ADVECTING 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SAME AREAS. 
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 120W. STRONG 
HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND OVER INLAND 
NORTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA 
OF CORTEZ N OF 25N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH 
OF 21N. A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS 
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW CORNER IN ABOUT 42 HRS PRECEDED BY 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELLS. THESE SWELLS ARE 
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY REACH 24 FEET OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA. 

S OF 18N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION ARE PRESENT SOUTHWEST TO A LINE 
FROM 15N120W TO 9N140W. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ ZONE NORTHEASTWARD WELL AWAY FROM THE 
AREA AND TOWARDS MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED NEAR 9N122W WITH RIDGE 
EAST TO ALONG 110W. DIFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 
107W AND 115W AND W OF 125W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED NELY FLOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD TO 
ALONG 5N EAST OF 105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
AREA EAST OF 100W LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
...OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ..OVER THESE WATERS.

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
WINDS OF 35-45 KT ESTIMATED IN THE AREA. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN
MLFB4 LOCATED 120 NM SSE OF THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WAS REPORTING NNE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND 20 FT SEAS
AS WELL AS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SEA SPRAY. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 18 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO GRADUALLY WEAKENS. ANOTHER GALE 
EVENT IS EXPECTED ON FRI INTO SAT...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG 
AS THIS EVENT. 

NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20-25 KT 
AS STRONG NE WINDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SPILL ON 
OVER INTO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS HERE WILL 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB