000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N90W 7N115W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 107W AND 114W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...127W 
AND 133W AND W OF 137W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY EXISTS FROM 2N TO 5N E 
OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 114W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
A SHARPLY DIGGING TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NWRN PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 29N132W SWWD THROUGH 22N140W TO ANOTHER 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N143W. TROUGH WAS SWINGING EWD AT 20 
KT AND WAS AIDING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A BROAD RIDGE WITH 
MEAN AXIS ALONG 127W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BROAD 
AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 60-85 KNOTS OVER MOST 
OF THE AREA N OF 18N CROSSING OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS
AREA OF WINDS WAS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ...OTHERWISE 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 120W. STRONG HIGH 
PRES LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND OVER INLAND NORTHERN 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ 
N OF 25N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 21N. A 
COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE NW CORNER IN ABOUT 48 HRS PRECEDED BY INCREASING SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELLS.

S OF 18N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION ARE PRESENT SOUTHWEST TO A LINE 
FROM 9N140W TO 15N122W. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ ZONE NORTHEASTWARD WELL AWAY FROM THE 
AREA AND TOWARDS MEXICO. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N127W WITH RIDGE EAST 
TO ALONG 110W. DIFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 106W AND 115W AND 
W OF 125W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN 
IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED NELY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 5N EAST OF 
105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 100W 
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ...OUTSIDE OF THE 
ITCZ..OVER THESE WATERS.

GAP WINDS...
STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
WINDS OF 40-50 KT ESTIMATED IN THE AREA. GFS 925 MB WINDS 
GUIDANCE INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT THROUGH TONIGHT AS 
SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS 
EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED.  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS ALSO WEAKENED ALLOWING 
FOR THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A LITTLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THIS 
MORNING. 

NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20-25 KT 
AS STRONG NE WINDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SPILL ON 
OVER INTO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS HERE WILL 
DECREASE TO 20 KT BY WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING.

$$
COBB