000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051632
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 5N100W 6N110W 7N120W 
7N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 127W-131W...AND ALSO FROM 3N-5N E OF 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 116W-123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION 
NEAR 31N122W WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 30N130W AND TO 25N138W. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH SPEEDS AXING OUT TO 70 KT EXTEND WITHIN 480 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. THESE WINDS ALSO CROSS OVER MUCH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
NORTHWEST TEXAS. WITH THE JET STREAM...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST  ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
...OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 120W. STRONG
HIGH PRES LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND OVER INLAND 
NORTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF 26N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA
NORTH OF 21N. A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST
TO APPROACHING THE NW CORNER IN ABOUT 48 HRS PRECEDED BY 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELLS.

S OF 18N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION ARE PRESENT SOUTHWEST TO A LINE 
FROM 9N140W TO 15N122W. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ ZONE NORTHEASTWARD WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND TOWARDS MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 8N134W WITH RIDGE EAST TO 8N126W. THIS IS ENHANCING
ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED NELY 
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD
TO ALONG 5N EAST OF 105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE AREA EAST OF 100W LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
...OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ..OVER THESE WATERS.

GAP WINDS...
THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THAT WAS EARLIER IN EFFECT FOR 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A STORM WARNING 
WITH WINDS OF 40-50 KT THIS MORNING BASED ON A MORNING QUIKSCAT 
PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION OF 45 KT FROM SHIP WITH CALLER ID OF 
S6MJO LOCATED NEAR 14N94W AT 1200 UTC. GFS 925 MB WIND GUIDANCE 
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KT THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT 
GALE FORCE THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY WED EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS 
ALSO WEAKENED ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A LITTLE ALONG 
THE MEXICAN COAST THIS MORNING. 

NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20-25 KT 
AS STRONG NE WINDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SPILL ON 
OVER INTO THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS HERE WILL 
DECREASE TO 20 KT BY WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING.

$$
AGUIRRE