000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0000 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 6N110W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
102W TO 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 125W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 135W TO 139W,

...DISCUSSION...
CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N124W WITH ASSOCIATED 
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W/SW TO 24N140W. A 70-80 KT WESTERLY 
JET FROM 18N140W TO 21N122W THEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THEN 
MERGING WITH A POLAR JET OVER THE NE UNITED STATES. A FEW HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ALONG THE JET ACROSS SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LOCATED DEEP WITHIN THE TROPICS FROM 
18N114W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 5N106W. S/SW FLOW ON 
THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH STREAMS NWD INTO MEXICO AND MERGES WITH 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NW MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED 
NELY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SWD TO 
4N/5N.

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL TUE MORNING FOR WINDS AT LEAST 65 KT...AND 
SEAS UP TO 27 FT. WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER ON TUE AND 
SHOULD FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
DGS