000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 7N86W 6N95W 7N110W 7N140W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
87W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN W OF 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 
29N124W WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W/SW TO 
25N140W. A 70-80 KT WESTERLY JET LIES ON THE S SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH AND PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO...MARRYING UP TO 
THE POLAR JET OVER THE NE UNITED STATES. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
ARE STREAMING ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO BUT 
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UP TO 650 NM W OF THE 
PENINSULA. STRONG HIGH PRES IS CENTERED W OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL 
AS INLAND ACROSS TEXAS/ERN MEXICO...AND THIS GRADIENT IS 
SUPPORTING WINDS 20-30 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

S OF 18N...
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS ENTER THE AREA ALONG 140W THEN TAKE A SWD 
DIVE INTO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH LOCATED DEEP WITHIN THE TROPICS 
ALONG 115W. S/SW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH STREAMS NWD 
INTO MEXICO AND MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NW 
MEXICO...AND IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. 
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/W CARIBBEAN IS 
PRODUCING GENERALLY DEEP-LAYERED NELY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ SWD TO 4N/5N AND VIRTUALLY 
CLEARED SKIES OUT EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. THIS 
IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LYING E OF 
105W.

GAP WINDS...
A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC UNTIL TUE MORNING FOR WINDS AT LEAST 65 KT...AND 
SEAS UP TO 27 FT. GFS 30-METER WIND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 55 KT...BUT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WINDS AND 
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO LAST EVENING WARRANTS A 
HIGHER FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE QUIKSCAT PASS 
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE INTERESTING. WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH 
LATER ON TUE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
BERG