000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N108W 5N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...AND W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 115W.  

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
BROAD WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WRN CONUS THROUGH 32N125W THEN SWD TO 18N WITH 
MEAN AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 120W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS  
THE AREA N OF 18N E OF ABOUT 130W INTO NW MEXICO. AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE VICINITY OF 29N127W...MOVING SWD 
ABOUT 10 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 26N140W AND CONTINUES TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 
24N120W AND THEN TURNS NE THROUGH S CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 
JET IS STRONGEST W OF 130W WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
MEASURING 80 TO 90 KNOTS. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED 
FURTHER UPSTREAM BEYOND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS REVEALED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS 
NOTED N OF THE JET E OF 130W. AT THE SURFACE...1308 UTC QUIKSCAT 
PASS INDICATED UNUSUALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS 
OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

S OF 18N...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF 18N W OF ABOUT 120W 
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED NWLY WINDS 60 TO 70 KNOTS COVERING A 
LARGE AREA FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 125W. AN EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED NEAR 6N138W. ANOTHER...MUCH LARGER  
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MODERATE SE TO S 
WINDS COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF ABOUT 110W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
THE FIFTH STORM FORCE WIND EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON HAS 
COMMENCED OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 
60 KNOTS IN GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ONE THE STRONGEST WIND EVENTS OBSERVED 
SINCE THE ADVENT OF SCATTREROMETER DATA IN 1999.

$$
COBB