000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 7N85W 6N110W 6N126W 5N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N89W AND 7N98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N106W 
TO 6N121W TO 7N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH ONE VORTICITY CENTER 
NEAR 30N128W AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR 25N115W. ENERGY IS SLOWLY 
EXITING THE CIRCULATION IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE 
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND MOVE EWD. A STRONG SRN BRANCH 
OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES OVER THE REGION FROM W TO E FROM 
25N140W TO 22N120W THEN NE TO 25N110W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
GALE CONDITION EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND QUIKSCAT IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
CENTER IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W AND EXTENDS OVER THE 
REGION N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
CONFINED TO W OF 125W BETWEEN 10N AND 22N. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO EVIDENT N OF 9N AND E OF 95W AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. 

LATER DAY 1 THE CLOSED CIRCULATION DIMINISHES WITH A CENTER NEAR 
29N128W. THE TROUGH PERSISTS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W 
TAPPING ENERGY FROM THE STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS INCREASE TO STORM FORCE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO PUMPS NLY WINDS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GAP WINDS WO 
F NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR CONTINUE NELY 20 TO 25 KT. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND NE TRADES. 

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
REFUSING TO GIVE UP. ALTHOUGH WEAKER A OPEN TROUGH WILL PERSIST 
ALONG 130W AND STILL INTERACT WITH THE STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES. A MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES ALONG 20N OVER SRN MEXICO 
FORCING THE SRN BRANCH TO SWEEP OVER NRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AS THE 
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF CHANGES LITTLE. GAP 
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT N OF 7N E OF 100W. WHILE NE TRADES 
DECREASE TO 15 KT..ELY WINDS BETWEEN 7N AND 12N FROM 100W TO 
120W WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY STRONG AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS. 

$$
RRG