000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N100W 6N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 
NM RADIUS OF 7N104W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 8N113W 
4N118W 6N127W LINE...AND FROM 3N TO 7N W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED 
THROUGH 32N127W TO NEAR 18N122W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 18N E OF ABOUT 130W INTO NW MEXICO. AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH IN THE 
VICINITY OF 31N128W...MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL 
JET ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 26N140W AND CONTINUES TO THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 20N122W AND THEN TURNS NE THROUGH S 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE JET IS STRONGEST W OF 130W WITH 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS MEASURING ABOUT 70 TO 80 KNOTS. EVEN 
STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED FURTHER UPSTREAM BEYOND THE WESTERN 
BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS REVEALED 
BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOTED N OF THE JET E OF 130W. AT THE 
SURFACE...UNUSUALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SEA 
OF CORTEZ.

S OF 18N...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF 18N W OF ABOUT 120W 
WITH NW WINDS 60 TO 70 KNOTS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 12N TO 
18N W OF 125W. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT HAS BEEN 
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF ABOUT 
110W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...GALE 
CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE WITHIN 12 HOURS WITH A 
CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE.

$$
CAB