000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 6N100W 5N120W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90-120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 
60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60-90 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS LOCATED 
THROUGH 32N127W TO NEAR 18N121W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 18N E OF ABOUT 130W INTO NW MEXICO. AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH IN THE 
VICINITY OF 31N127W...MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL 
JET ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 26N140W AND CONTINUES TO THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 20N120W AND THEN TURNS NE THROUGH S 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE JET IS STRONGEST W OF 130W WITH 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS MEASURING ABOUT 70 TO 80 KNOTS. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AS REVEALED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOTED N OF THE 
JET E OF 135W. AT THE SURFACE...UNUSUALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS 
CONTINUE OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

S OF 18N...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF 18N W OF ABOUT 120W 
WITH NW WINDS 50 TO 60 KNOTS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 12N TO 
18N W OF 125W. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT HAS BEEN 
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF ABOUT 
110W. AT THE SURFACE...STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH A CHANCE THAT NORTHERLY 
WINDS MAY REACH HURRICANE FORCE.

$$
CAB