000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N94W 6N110W 6N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 7N78W TO 7N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM 
OF A LINE FROM 6N103W TO 6N116W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N120W TO 6N131W.

...DISCUSSION...

NRN BRANCH WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO BATTER A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY 
WEAKENING BUT MAINTAINING IT'S POSITION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS 
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD JUST E OF THE RIDGE INTO A BROAD MID LEVEL 
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 130W N OF 22N. THE TROUGH IS HOLDING 
IT'S OWN BUT ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE OUT OF THE TROUGH IN 
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND HEAD ACROSS SRN BAJA AND N 
CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT 
CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT 
IMAGERY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW 
WINDS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND BOTH SSMI AND QUIKSCAT CONFIRM 
THIS AND AGREES WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS 
CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 135W AND IS PRODUCING NE 
TRADES 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 125W. QUIKSCAT AND 
SSMI CONFIRM THIS. GAP WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO BLOWING OVER THE 
WATERS W OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE THE TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 130W CLOSES 
OFF WITH A CENTER NEAR 25N120W. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES 
WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 15N AND 20N HEADING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG 
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE 
INTERIOR OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE A NEW GALE DEVELOPS. LITTLE CHANGE TO 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE NE TRADES LATER DAY 1. 

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR A WEAKENED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO HANGE ON OVER 
THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA BUT ORIENTED NE/SW. THE CLOSED 
MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS W TO NEAR 30N128W WHILE THE SRN BRANCH 
OF THE WESTERLIES REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG BETWEEN 15N AND 20N THEN 
HEADING ENE ACROSS SRN BAJA AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 LOOK FOR WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC REACHING STORM FORCE OF 50 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO 
INCREASE IN THIS AREA TO 15 TO 18 FT. GUSTY NE AND E WINDS WILL 
BE THE RULE N OF 7N TO 13N E OF 110W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS 
OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ DIMINISH SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT WHILE W OF 
BAJA WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT. NE TRADES TO 20 KT WILL 
CONTINUE W OF 125W WITH A WEAKER PACIFIC RIDGE. 

$$
RRG