000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N95W 5N110W 5N125W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
A 90 NM RADIUS OF 6N80W...WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 5.5N119W... 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 5N124W 6N130W LINE...AND WITHIN A 
60 NM RADIUS OF 5.5N134.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 126W N OF 20N 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA E OF ABOUT 130W INTO N 
MEXICO. FURTHER UPSTREAM A RIDGE ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE NW 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THAT 
ORIGINATES NEAR THE DATE LINE EXTENDS THROUGH 27N140W TO 20N125W 
AND THEN TURNS NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG THE JET AXIS PEAK OUT 
AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS W OF 135W. N OF THE JET WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...NW TO NW WINDS 
OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

S OF 15N...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 120W. A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN 
WITH MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC E OF ABOUT 110W 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO FALL 
BELOW 35 KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A 
0045 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND BUILD SOUTHWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH 
ASSOCIATED STORM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

$$
CAB