000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 6N100W 5N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
90-120 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 134W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 3N E OF 83W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS AND IS DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS 
AXIS ALONG 128W. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET THAT ORIGINATES NEAR 
THE DATE LINE EXTENDS THROUGH 26N140W TO 20N125W AND THEN TURNS 
NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS ALONG THE JET AXIS PEAK OUT AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS. N 
OF THE JET WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AT 
THE SURFACE...NW TO NW WINDS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ ARE 20 TO 25 
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

S OF 15N...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 120W. A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN 
WITH MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC E OF ABOUT 110W 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS 
ARE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXPECTED TO FALL 
BELOW 35 KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS. HOWEVER A STRONG RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND BUILD SOUTHWARD IN 
36 TO 48 HOURS WITH STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

$$
CAB