000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021632
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 6N100W 6N120W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS W OF 133W...AND N OF 3N E OF 83W TO THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS SWWD 
THROUGH CALIFORNIA TO 22N130W. BROAD CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW AND 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. 
FURTHER UPSTREAM...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 132W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST CAPPED THE RIDGE AND 
EXTENDED THROUGH 27N140W 24N125W THEN CURVES ENEWD ALONG 26N115W
ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS OF 
85 TO 110 KNOTS ARE INDICATED ALONG THE JET AXIS. AT THE 
SURFACE...NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR SO ARE LOCATED OVER THE 
SEA OF CORTEZ.

S OF 15N...
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE SW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF ABOUT 120W WITH AN EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 5N134W. 
ANOTHER LARGE WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W.
WITH MODERATE SE TO S FLOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR 
WEST AS 105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
1240 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE 
WITHIN 12 HOURS...HOWEVER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS BY 48 
HOURS. 

$$
COBB