000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N80W 6N100W 6N117W 7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 4N77W 5N79W 7N79W 6N82W 8N82W 6N92W 
7N104W AND 7N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6N134W TO 8N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE OPEN MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION 
TONIGHT AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE WRN US WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SWD OVER 
THE NE PORTION OF OUR REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEAK 
MID TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BAJA WSW TO 23N132W. A VIGOROUS SRN 
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES ALONG 22N HEADING ENE ACROSS 
SRN BAJA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED N OF 
THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE TRADES TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 24N 
W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY NWLY 10 TO 15 
KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IMAGE FROM SSMI. NE WINDS TO 20 KT W 
OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR ARE EVIDENT IN QUIKSCAT IMAGERY AND 
CONFIRM THE LATEST GFS RUN FOR 06Z. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS A NEW TROUGH NW OF THE AREA ERODES 
THE RIDGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WSW OF BAJA CONTINUES AS WEAK 
IMPULSES DROP SWD FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. THE 
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US LOWERS HEIGHTS OVER NRN MEXICO AS A 
NEW STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS S OVER THE SW US. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR WINDS OF GALE FORCE TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS RUNNING 10 TO 14 FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
REMAIN LIGHT WHILE GAP WINDS W OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA 
CONTINUE NELY TO 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION 
REMAINS STATIONARY WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WSW OF BAJA TRIES 
TO CUTOFF ALONG 120W. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL 
CONTINUE ALONG 17N TO 20N CURVING NE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL BRIEFLY 
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BUT A NEW SURGE HEADING S OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REINSTATE A GALE CONDITION LATE DAY 2 OR 
EARLY DAY 3. WINDS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ INCREASE WITH THE NEW 
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING SWD OVER MEXICO. WINDS OF 25 TO 
30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF BAJA WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME DAY 2 WITH NE TRADES OF 2O KT 
CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 125W. GAP WINDS W OF EL 
SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA CONTINUE NELY 20 KT.

$$
RRG