000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N79W 6N90W 6N105W 6N112W 6N120W 
7N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 118W N OF 20N. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
E OF 125W INTO N MEXICO. A SMALL EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 27N114W...NEARLY STATIONARY. 
FURTHER UPSTREAM BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W 
OF ABOUT 128W. A STRONG WESTERLY JET IS MARKED BY A CIRRUS BAND 
EXTENDING THROUGH 22N140W TO 21N130W TO 20N125W. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS ARE ABOUT 70-80 KNOTS ALONG THE JET AXIS. THE JET 
WEAKENS FURTHER EAST AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH 19N120W TO BEYOND 
24N108W. AT THE SURFACE UNUSUALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20 
TO 25 KNOT RANGE COVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

S OF 15N...
BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE SW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF ABOUT 120W. A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ALOFT IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SE TO S FLOW 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR WEST AS 105W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A STRONG GALE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 
STORM FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

$$
CAB