000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 6N100W 6N110W 6N122W 7N130W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 126.5W AND 131W AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 
134W AND 138W.
 

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ABOUT 20 KT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE AREA . A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N122W 
WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N120W AND 12N123W. ANOTHER 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 4N103W WITH A TROUGH SE TO THE 
EQUATOR AND 86W. 
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N98W. ANOTHER 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N130W TO 7N140W. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 110W WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE 
ELSEWHERE.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A JET STREAM BRANCH...ABOUT 150 NM 
WIDE... WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80-105 KT EXTENDS FROM 27N117W 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EAST TO ACROSS 
NORTHWEST MEXICO. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING 
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN 
MEXICO COVERING A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 
115W-135W...AND ALSO FROM 16N-27N E OF 115W. AN UPPER LOW OVER 
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 6N102W...AND IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR THAT COVERS THE 
SECTION OF THE AREA E OF 111W.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SSE OVER THE AREA TO 20N AND W OF 115W. TRADE WINDS 
OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. RIDGE 
IS FORECAST TO BUILD SSW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
REGION THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
GRADIENT PINCHED OFF OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SEA
OF CORTEZ AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS BRINGING STRONG NW WINDS (TO 30 KT) TO MUCH 
OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ AS REVEALED IN QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS 
MORNING AND AS GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEPICT. AS THE LOW 
PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME WHILE THE HIGH BUILDS SSW...THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY 48 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN ABOUT 24 HRS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
SOUTHWARD OVER S TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD 
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE REACHING TO 20 KT AT TIMES
...AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH A STEADY 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 
HRS AS STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
AND CARIBBEAN SEA HOLDS STEADY.

$$
TORRE