000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 6N92W 6N100W 6N110W 6N120W 
6N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 139W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 8N120W 9N125W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 15N120W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING E ABOUT 20 KT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W-134W WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...SOMEWHAT 
ELONGATED...EVIDENT NEAR 25N126W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS 
THE REGION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...THE WESTERN MOST RIDGE 
BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH AXIS RUNNING FROM 16N140W 
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH 23N139W TO A CREST NEAR 28N138W. THE 
FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC NORTH OF 28N WEST 138W IN ADVANCE OF A 
STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE REGION 
NEAR 32N154W. OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. A JET STREAM BRANCH...ABOUT 150 NM WIDE... WITH 
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80-105 KT EXTENDS FROM 27N117W NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EAST TO ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. 
AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO COVERING A GOOD 
MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 115W-135W...AND ALSO 
FROM 16N-27N E OF 115W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF 
THE AREA NEAR 6N102W...AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR THAT COVERS THE SECTION OF THE AREA E OF 
111W.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SSE OVER THE AREA TO 20N AND W OF 115W. TRADE WINDS 
OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. RIDGE 
IS FORECAST TO BUILD SSW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
REGION THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
GRADIENT PINCHED OFF OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SEA
OF CORTEZ AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
NORTHWEST MEXICO IS BRINGING STRONG NW WINDS (TO 30 KT) TO MUCH 
OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ AS REVEALED IN QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS 
MORNING AND AS GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEPICT. AS THE LOW 
PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME WHILE THE HIGH BUILDS SSW...THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY 48 HRS. 

GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN ABOUT 30 HRS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
SOUTHWARD OVER S TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD 
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE REACHING TO 20 KT AT TIMES
...AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH A STEADY 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 
HRS AS STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
AND CARIBBEAN SEA HOLDS STEADY.

$$
AGUIRRE