000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N82W 6N98W 7N121W 6N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N79W AND 6N95W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N119W TO 10N125W TO 7N129W TO 
6N136W TO 8N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST AT 7N80W TO 7N82W 
TO 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N112W 
AND 14N117W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE RIDGE HAS BECOME CUTOFF ALONG 
130W JUST N OF 30N. A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW US 
TONIGHT AND IS MOVING E 20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES MEANDERS ALONG 
20N THE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 
120W IS MOVING ENE 40 KT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG 132W N OF THE AREA AND IS BEING JOINED 
BY A ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE WRN US. THE TWO ARE PRODUCING A 
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA 
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS W OF BAJA. IN ADDITION NLY WINDS TO 30 KT 
ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF CA. NE TRADES TO 25 KT ACCORDING 
TO SSMI W OF 125W. GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE CUTOFF HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 33N128W 
DRIFTING EWD AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW US MOVES 
EWD. A NEW TROUGH BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE JUST W OF 140W. 
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG 20N WITH AN 
AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS FORMING NEAR 
23N125W..JUST S OF THE CUTOFF HIGH TO THE N. A FLAT RIDGE LIES S 
OF 18N ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 
STRONG NE WINDS W OF BAJA TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE. TRADES WILL 
REMAIN STRONG W OF 120W BECOMING SELY N OF 25N W OF 137W. NLY 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CA REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT WHILE GAP WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT. 

FOR DAY 2 OR THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE 
RAPIDLY OVER NRN MEXICO AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. 
THE CUTOFF HIGH ALONG 130W BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE STRONG SWLY 
WINDS WORK THEIR WAY EWD ALONG 140W. THE SRN BRANCH SAGS SWD TO 
BETWEEN 15N AND 20N ALLOWING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THE SHORTWAVE 
ALONG 120W TO WORK EWD. THE FLAT RIDGE S OF 15N CONTINUES 
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR 
GALE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY DAY 2 THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS COULD GUST TO 
40 KT.  WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT AS 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL US AND MEXICO MOVES SE. WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF CA ALSO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND NE TRADES W OF 120W DIMINISH SOME TO 
MOSTLY 20 KT. 

$$
RRG