000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291614 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 5N100W 7N110W 8N120W 7N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXITS FROM 4N-7N E OF 82W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 132W-138W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W-118W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 127W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 129W WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 8N122W. OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING SWD N OF ABOUT 25N AND E OF 122W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80-105 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 60-90 NM TO THE S OF THE TROUGH E OF 120W. AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ENE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND COVERS A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 115W-135W...AND ALSO FROM 16N-27N E OF 115W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS PROTRUDING SWD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 27N. UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS NEAR 7N101W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR THAT COVERS THE SECTION OF THE AREA E OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE... A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SSE OVER THE AREA TO 17N AND W OF 115W. TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. RIDGE WILL BUILD S OVER THE WESTERN US AND OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ... WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 30 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS. GAP WINDS... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN ABOUT 48 HRS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER S TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO THU. NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT NEAR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. $$ AGUIRRE