000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...3N77W 5N95W 8N118W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 79W 
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG N OF 
AXIS TO COAST OF PANAMA FROM 79W-83W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 125W TO 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 111W TO 122W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 
16N W OF W OF 134W. LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 26N 
FROM 110W TO 134W WITH THE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 8N123W
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NE OVER THE SAME AREA. JETSTREAM WITH 
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY ALONG 
21N134W 25N123W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO NEAR 26N110W. 
STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF 27N E OF 130W TO OVER THE W 
US WITH A SURGE OF DRIER AIR MOVING RAPIDLY S TO 30N 
RE-ENFORCING THE DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALREADY IN 
PLACE. UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICS NEAR 7N100W EMBEDDED WITHIN 
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT EXTENDS N OVER S MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS WELL N OF REGION WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING S OVER THE AREA TO 17N W OF 115W. TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 
KT ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. RIDGE WILL BUILD 
S OVER THE WESTERN US OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...WHERE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 30 KT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT AT TIMES 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER IN THE WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
$$
WALLACE