000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...7N77W 5N105W 7N115W 6N130W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF 
PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA. A 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE 
REGION WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX NEAR 24N137W. AN UPPER TROUGH 
IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
NEAR 30N140W. AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 125W 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N125W. 
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH NOTED ABOVE MAY LIMIT ANY FURTHER 
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JUST EAST OF 
THIS RIDGE...THERE IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 
108W/109W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. IT WAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE. 
DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE NORTH PART OF 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED THAT CORE SPEEDS ARE BETWEEN 
80 TO 100 KT WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL 250 MB 
WINDS. SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE EWD OVER THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. VERY DRY 
AIR IS NOTED EAST OF 110W EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ NEAR THE GULF OF PANAMA. A WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS NEAR 7N100W MOVING WWD 10 KT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. 
TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS 
RIDGE. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND RESULT 
IN AN INCREASE IN NWLY WINDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 30 KT IN 36 
HOURS OR SO. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT AT TIMES 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO.
 
$$
RUBIO/COBB