000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 5N95W 6N120W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 121W 
AND 128W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 TO 100 NM NORTH OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...AND OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE AREA...WHILE A SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION WITH AN 
EMBEDDED VORT MAX NEAR 24N143W. A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS 
MAINLY NE TO SW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS ALONG 130W FROM AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS NEAR 9N132W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW 
MEXICO TO 14N115W AND WAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE. DRY AIR... 
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE 
CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. A SUBTROPICAL JET PERSISTS ALONG 28N135W 24N115W THEN 
CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATED THAT CORE SPEEDS ARE BETWEEN 80 TO 100 KT. 
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N W OF 
110W. VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED EAST OF 110W EXCEPT FOR THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY OVER 
THE GULF OF PANAMA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NEAR 7N100W MOVING WWD 10 KT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE 
EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NWLY 
WINDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS WEEK AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO.
 
$$
RUBIO/COBB