000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N92W 7N115W 7N129W 10N134W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 
110W TO 128W AND FROM 136W TO 140W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
OVERALL PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE-TROUGH OVER THE AREA N 
OF 5N. MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N140W NNE TO 28N130W 
AND A DOWNSTREAM STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
SW US ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 17N112W. DRY 
UPPER AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ARE FROM 
23N TO 30N E OF 120W ACROSS BAJA AND NW MEXICO. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS 
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG 27N140W TO 21N118W THEN 
RE-INTENSIFIES OVER MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING 
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS 
CENTERED NEAR 11N136W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ITCZ. SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 110W WITH THE 
SURFACE HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N135W TO 20N110W. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC AND IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.  

E OF 100W...
WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 6N98W WITH UPPER SW 
FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. 

$$
WALLACE