000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 5N100W 7N120W 10N134W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 116W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 132W AND 134W.

 
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
OVERALL PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET OVER 
THE AREA N OF 15N. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 132W AND EXTENDS SWD TO 
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N135W. DOWNSTREAM STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO 
SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 15N113W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE 
TROUGH. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS THROUGH 28N140W 25N125W 
TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 19N114W THEN CURVES SHARPLY NEWD 
ACROSS W-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N107W AND INTO THE SRN GREAT 
PLAINS OF THE CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED THAT CORE 
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80-100 KT. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS THE 
FLOW WAS DIFFLUENT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE AND WAS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W 
AND 116W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA AND WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 1010 MB WAS NEAR 
11N134W AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WWD. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE LOW PRESSURE. 1032 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N144W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING 
COVERED THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EWD 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NWLY WINDS 
OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ. 

E OF 100W...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W IS MOVING 
SLOWLY NEWD AND DOMINATES THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 100W WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
NEAR 5N100W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED ACROSS THE 
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR E PACIFIC WHERE DIFFLUENT SLY 
FLOW WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA.  

GAP WINDS...
SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE 
TO 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. 
  
$$
COBB/GR