000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG...5N77W 6N105W 11N132W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
OVERALL PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET OVER 
THE AREA N OF 15N. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 135W AND EXTENDS SWD TO 
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N135W. DOWNSTREAM STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA 
SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 15N115W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE 
TROUGH. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS THROUGH 28N140W 23N125W 
18N115W THEN CURVES NEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N107W 
AND INTO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS OF THE CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 75-90 KT. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
THE FLOW WAS DIFFLUENT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE AND 
WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
105W AND 118W. 

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 1010 MB WAS NEAR 
11N134W AND WAS DRIFTING WWD. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS MAINLY E OF THE LOW PRESSURE. 1030 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N144W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING 
COVERED THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. A 1430 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS 
INDICATED TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 115W. 

E OF 100W...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W DOMINATES 
THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 5N100W. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE FAR E PACIFIC WHERE DIFFLUENT SLY FLOW WAS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION NEAR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  

GAP WINDS...
THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...1245 UTC...INDICATED 20-25 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THESE WINDS 
SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN. 
  
$$
COBB/GR