000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG...3N77W 4N85W 4N100W 10N113W 7N120W 11N129W 8N136W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 6N105W TO 7N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N111W TO 8N121W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 
11N127W TO 8N136W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 11N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE REGION 
TONIGHT. IT'S AXIS IS ALONG 115W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 115W TONIGHT WITH A 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AREA FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AXIS ACCORDING TO 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SUBTROPIC JET CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY 
OVER A MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 140W THEN CURVES BACK CYCLONICALLY 
ALONG 20N THEN NEWD OVER SRN BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION 
LATER DAY 1. THE PACIFIC RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 10N AND 
W OF 110W. NE TRADES TO 25 KT ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN 12N AND 22N W 
OF 125W ACCORDING TO SSMI AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 
MODEL AT 06Z. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY NWLY 15 TO 
20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS THE STRONG 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ENE OVER NRN MEXICO. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE 
ALONG 140W BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SEWD ALONG THE NRN COAST OF BAJA WITH GUSTY 
NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND INCREASING NW SWELL TO 8 FT. LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND NE TRADES. WINDS W OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
WILL REMAIN NELY 15 TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. 

FOR DAY 2 THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION N OF 20N 
BUT MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE W OF 115W. THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BECOMES STATIONARY AS A 
CUTOFF LOW FORMS ON THE SW SIDE OF THE RIDGE..APPARENTLY A 
SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES GOT CAUGHT IN THE 
RIDGE AND NOW WILL CLOSE OFF. ANYWAY THE SRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES BECOME MORE PROMINENT ALONG 20N HEADING E ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SE OVER BAJA. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
WILL BE NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 8 FT. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE WEAKENS SOME AND NE TO E TRADES TO 25 KT ARE CONFINED TO A 
SMALLER AREA BETWEEN 15N AND 20N W OF 120W.  

$$
RRG