000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG...3N77W 5N84W 4N93W 10N113W 9N120W 10N126W 8N140W. 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N79W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N104W 5N108W AND 7N109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 7N134W AND 8N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIES OVER THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 30N118W TO 20N130W. 
THE TROUGH IS MOVING ESE 40 KT. A WELL DEFINED DRY AREA FOLLOWS 
THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 20N AND 26N FROM 122W TO 137W ACCORDING 
TO THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SUBTROPIC JET EXTENDS FROM 26N140W 
TO 20N128W WITH A SECOND SEGMENT TO 30N115W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT QUIKSCAT SHOWS NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG WITH NE TRADES 25 TO 30 
KT BETWEEN 15N AND 22N W OF 125W ACCORDING TO SSMI AND ALSO 
AGREES WELL WITH THE MODEL. NO PASS FROM QUIKSCAT. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST NWLY 15 TO 20 KT. A WEAK LOW CENTER WAS ON THE 
ITCZ MOVING SLOWLY WWD. THE LOW WAS NEAR 9N116W. 

LATER DAY 1 THE LARGE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD TO ALONG 30N112W 
20N122W. MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS JUST W OF THE REGION ALONG 
143W AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 GFS MODEL SHOWS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SAGGING SWD JUST A 
BIT BUT MAINTAINING IT'S STRENGTH CONSEQUENTLY STRONGEST TRADES 
SHIFT TO BETWEEN 14N AND 20N W OF 125W. LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WHILE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS CONTINUE 15 TO 20 
KT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIB WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS TO 20 
KT W OF OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR. THE WEAK LOW ON THE ITCZ 
MOVES TO NEAR 9N117W WITH NO DEVELOPMENT. 

FOR DAY 2 A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN PORTION 
OF THE REGION N OF 20N. MID LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE REGION MOVES 
SLOWLY EWD TO 138W WHILE RIDGING OVER SRN MEXICO MOVES ENE. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ALONG THE 
CA COAST. THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND 
INCREASE NW SWELL TO 10 FT TO THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE 
MOVING INLAND LATE DAY 2. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DAY 
2 BUT BRISK NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO 25 KT FROM 14N TO 22N W 
OF 120W. THE WEAK LOW ON THE ITCZ MOVES SLOWLY WWD TO NEAR 
9N120W WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF NICARAGUA DECREASE SOME TO 15 KT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIB WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  

$$
RRG