000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 4N77W 5N93W 8N112W 8N121W 8N133W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N78W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
3N82W TO 5N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N110W TO 8N119W. ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR 9N122W AND 8N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
11N120W 14N123W 8N129W AND 7N137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PORTION 
OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO LOWER HEIGHTS N OF 20N. SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. ONE IS OVER 
THE SW US ALONG 110W MOVING ENE 30 KT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS 
ALONG 125W BRUSHING BY THE NRN PORTION OF THE REGION. BOTH ARE 
IDENTIFIED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS 
HEADING SE NW OF THE REGION ALONG 135W MOVING SE 45 KT. A FLAT 
MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES S OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 10N AND 
20N FROM THE MEXICAN COAST W TO BEYOND 140W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT NE WINDS CONTINUE TO CROSS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BUT AT A 
REDUCED SPEED. QUIKSCAT SHOWS NE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WHILE SSMI SHOWS WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ALONG THE 
NICARAGUAN COAST. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES FAIRLY STRONG WITH 
NE TRADES W OF 125W TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI AND 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST NWLY 15 TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS SHORTWAVES 
CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION N OF 
20N. MID LEVEL RIDGES S OF 20N BEGIN TO BULGE NWD OVER MEXICO 
AND NW OF THE REGION W OF 140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 SOME 
GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES LITTLE. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND NE TRADES WILL REMAIN THE 
SAME. 

FOR DAY 2 A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH ALONG 115W OVER BAJA. A MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALONG 140W 
WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE DAY 2. MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS S OF 
20N WITH THE RELENTLESS PUSH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWD. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENING NW OF THE 
REGION..THE PACIFIC RIDGE ALSO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT NE TRADES 
WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 15N AND 24N W OF 127W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WEAKEN SOME TO 10 TO 15 KT. STILL SOME 
GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 KT BUT W OF NICARAGUA 
NE WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT. 

$$
RRG