000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N83W 6N98W 10N117W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N121W 
TO 28N125W AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS ENTERING THE EXTREME NW PORTION 
NEAR 139W. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES FROM 20N140W 
TO 25N115W THEN ACROSS NW MEXICO. A FLAT RIDGE LIES OVER THE REGION 
S OF 22N W OF 100W. IN THE NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG WITH NE TRADES W OF 125W TO 25 KT AND 
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 20-30 KT WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND WINDS ARE 20-25 KT W OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NWLY 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. WINDS AND 
SEAS AT TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH...BECOMING 20-25 KT LATER TODAY 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 

THE GFS MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL N OF 20N W 
OF 110W AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS SE INTO THE REGION. THE FLAT 
RIDGE DRIFTS S TO ALONG 10 TO 15N AND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE 
SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH NE TRADES 
OF 25 KT W OF 130W. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW N OF THE PANAMA CANAL WILL 
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF NLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
MUNDELL