000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 4N77W 5N105W 8N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION 60 NM WIDE 90W TO 100W AND 90 NM WIDE 108W TO 115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 90 NM WIDE 133W TO 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES FROM 20N140W TO 25N115W 
THEN ACROSS NW MEXICO. A FLAT RIDGE LIES OVER THE REGION S OF 22N W 
OF 100W. SHIP REPORTS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. IN NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG WITH NE TRADES W OF 125W TO 25 
KT AND SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 20-25 KT NE WINDS CONTINUE W OF EL SALVADOR 
AND NICARAGUA. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NWLY 15 KT 
WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS AT TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH... 
BECOMING 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 

THE GFS MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL N OF 20N W 
OF 110W AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS SE INTO THE REGION. THE FLAT 
RIDGE DRIFTS S TO ALONG 10 TO 15N AND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE 
SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH NE TRADES 
OF 25 KT W OF 130W. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL STILL PUSH AIR THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF NICARAGUA TO 20 KT. 

$$
MUNDELL