000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N84W 4N104W 9N118W 6N135W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 4N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 25 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N89W TO 4N100W TO 6N108W TO 7N109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 20 NM OF 9N111W 9N117W AND 
6N133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES 
CONTINUES FROM 20N140W TO 25N125W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND 
NW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NW MEXICO MOVING ENE 
25 KT. A FLAT RIDGE LIES OVER THE REGION S OF 24N W OF 100W. ON 
THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC HAS ALL 
BUT SPENT IT FUEL. SHIP REPORTS AND SSMI DATA SHOW 25 KT. NO 
PASS FROM QUIKSCAT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG WITH 
NE TRADES W OF 125W TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI. 
SHIPS IN THE REGION W OF 125W ARE MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY NE WINDS W OF EL SALVADOR 
AND NICARAGUA. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOW 20 TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE HOLDS ON S OF 22N..THE 
WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS N OF 22N SLOWLY. WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE SE AND E THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH WHICH IS 
GENERALLY ALONG 125W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND NE TRADES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
WILL REMAIN NWLY 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD BE MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO 
FALL N OF 20N W OF 110W AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS SE INTO THE 
REGION. THE FLAT RIDGE DRIFTS S TO ALONG 10 TO 15N AND OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL 
REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH NE TRADES OF 25 KT W OF 130W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NWLY 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW 
SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH 
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL STILL PUSH AIR THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF NICARAGUA TO 20 KT. 

$$
RRG