000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 4N77W 6N85W 6N104W 10N119W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N105W 
TO 10N114W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N128W 
TO 26N136W. DRY AIR IS INDICATED NW OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. A PLUME OF 
DEEP MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A KONA LOW 
N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE 23N140W TO 25N128W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N117W WITH RIDGING W TO 140W.
ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UNDER THE 
RIDGE. A FLAT RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS ALONG 21N BETWEEN 105W AND 140W. 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 
113W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED ENE INTO S MEXICO.
   
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO A BASE 
NEAR 10N92W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS INDICATED DEEP INTO THE 
TROPICAL E PAC TO ALONG 5N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...SUPPRESSING ITCZ 
CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.

NO SHIP REPORTS THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OTHER THAN 
QUIKSCAT IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC...BUT SURFACE REPORTS HAVE BEEN 
TRENDING DOWNWARD BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX BELOW GALE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT OVER GULF OF MEXICO EASES. NE SWELLS
FROM THE GAP WINDS EVENT ARE CROSSING THE EQUATOR...AND NWW3 SHOWS 
THESE SWELLS ADVECTING SW TO NEAR 20S120W IN 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL