000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU NOV 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS 4N77W 6N86W 5N102W 12N120W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO 8N E OF 80W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 4N84W 6N106W 10N113W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N126W 4N132W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PAC WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N128W TO 27N140W. UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N140W 27N128W TO WELL BEYOND 32N118W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N115W WITH A RIDGE W TO A SHARP CREST AT 11N146W...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS N BECOMING FLAT ALONG 21N BETWEEN 140W AND 107W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE DOES HOWEVER ENHANCE THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 113W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED ENE REMAINING UNDER THE FLATTENED RIDGE. FURTHER E...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N80W 17N86W INTO THE E PAC TO A BASE NEAR 11N99W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 97W WITH THE DRY AIR PLUNGING S INTO THE TROPICAL E PAC TO ALONG 5N BETWEEN 97W AND 80W...EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE THIN LINE DESCRIBED ABOVE. E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH CONVECTION IS IMPRESSIVELY ENHANCED FROM THE PAC ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. LATEST SSMI DATA SUPPORTS ONLY GALE FORCE GAP WINDS. THE GALE WINDS SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT OVER GULF OF MEXICO EASES. EARLIER A SHIP REPORTED NE 29 KT AND SEAS 12 FT NEAR 7.8N 86.3W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED NLY SWELLS ARE ALREADY CROSSING THE EQUATOR...WITH NWW3 ADVECTING THESE SWELLS SW TO NEAR 20S120W IN 48 HOURS. $$ MUNDELL