000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232146 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 5N78W 5N100W 12N120W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 3N78W 5N103W 11N113W...AND WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
15N120W 9N128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N PAC WITH AN 
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N128W 28N140W. UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF 
THIS TROUGH AXIS. A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS MOISTURE PLUME... 
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED 
CYCLONE N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N140W 27N128W TO WELL BEYOND 32N118W. 

A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N115W WITH A 
RIDGE W TO A SHARP CREST AT 11N146W...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT 
ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE. A RIDGE ALSO 
EXTENDS N BECOMING FLAT ALONG 21N BETWEEN 140W AND 107W. 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE DOES HOWEVER ENHANCE THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 102W AND 113W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTED NE AND E...REMAINING UNDER THE FLATTENED RIDGE.   
   
FURTHER E...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS 
HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N80W 17N86W INTO THE E PAC TO 
A BASE NEAR 11N99W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N 
OF 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 97W WITH THE DRY AIR PLUNGING S INTO THE 
TROPICAL E PAC TO ALONG 5N BETWEEN 97W AND 80W...EFFECTIVELY 
SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE THIN LINE DESCRIBED ABOVE.
E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH CONVECTION IS IMPRESSIVELY ENHANCED FROM 
THE PAC ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE SW ATLC TO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 1N81W 
18N74W 35N65W...FINALLY DECREASING NEAR AN UPPER RIDGE CREST 
NEAR 45N60W. MAYBE WE SHOULD CALL THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME 
A PANAMA EXPRESS?

GAP WINDS...ALTHOUGH NO SHIP REPORTS IN OR JUST DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...LATEST SSMI DATA SUPPORTS 
ONLY GALE FORCE WINDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GALE WINDS SHOULD 
RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT OVER GULF OF MEXICO RELAXES. 
LATEST QSCAT JUST MISSED GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT SHIP WDOI REPORTED 
NE 29 KT AND SEAS 12 FT NEAR 7.8N 86.3W. ALSO EXPECT THESE WINDS 
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED NLY SWELLS ALREADY 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR...WITH NWW3 ADVECTING THESE SWELLS SW TO 
NEAR 20S120W IN 48 HOURS.  

$$
NELSON