000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 4N77W 5N88W 8N110W 12N122W 7N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N79W TO 5N86W 
TO 5N97W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N104W TO 9N110W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE NEAR 11N111W AND 14N120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE WESTERLIES ARE SPLIT WITH THE SRN 
BRANCH OR PINEAPPLE EXPRESS FROM 25N140W ENE TO SRN CA. A WEAK 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 12N115W MOVING 
ENE 30 KT. A LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 95W 
TO 140W S OF 23N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. QUIKSCAT AND 
SSMI CONFIRM WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HR. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 25 KT 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA N OF 8N E OF 92W WITH N WINDS TO 25 KT S 
OF PANAMA. 

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR A SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES TO BRUSH BY 
THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 132W MOVING E 40 KT. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA CENTERED 
NEAR 17N120W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A GALE WARNING WILL 
CONTINUE FOR THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC FOR N AND NE WINDS 25 TO 35 
KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. GUSTY NE AND E WINDS 
TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA N OF 8N E OF 100W DRIVEN BY 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOWER 
PRESSURE ALONG THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL 
MAINTAIN NE TRADES OF 20 KT N OF 12N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST SHOULD BE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WEAKENS WHILE THE NRN 
BRANCH DIVES SE AS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH LOWERS HEIGHTS N OF 
22N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS DAY 2 AND 
SLIDES WWD TO NEAR 15N132W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR GUSTY 
NE WINDS OF 25 KT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AS 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTY 
NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL ALSO CONTINUE N OF 8N E OF 100W. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT 
CONTINUING BETWEEN 10N AND 25N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST SHOULD REMAIN NWLY 10 TO 15 KT.  

$$
RRG